Great Transitions Scenarios

In 1995 an international group of people was convened to look at the state of the world, analyze the social, economic and environmental conditions, create a set of indicators and, using those indicators, make some projections about the potential paths that human development could take in the future.  They were called the Global Scenarios Group.
After years of studying, analyzing and using some creative thinking, they utilized those indicators to project the future of the human species in 3 different directions.  They called these different categories: Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transitions. 

Now, from the outset, it's important to note that these are projections, not predictions.  The researchers who participated in the Global Scenarios Group are quick to point out the limitations of their projections.  However, I believe it's important for us to envision the future and it's nice to have a few different, well-researched scenarios to start with.  So, here's a quick description...

Conventional Worlds

Each category has two different scenarios.  The first of the three categories, Conventional Worlds, has the Market Forces Scenario and the Policy Reform Scenario.    In the Market Forces Scenario, people trust that the self-correcting logic of the free, competitive markets will be able to resolve the environmental and social issues that a growing global population produces.  In the end, it fails.  In the Policy Reform Scenario, people assume that changes in policy will resolve these issues.  In the end, it fails, as well.  (If you doubt that Policy Reform and/or Market Forces alone will fail, read this and this for some more food-for-thought.)

Barbarization

In the Barbarization scenarios, the whole world goes to hell in a hand basket, basically.  The first scenario is called Breakdown.  That name is pretty self-explanatory, but to quote the GSG:

In this variant, crises combine and spin out of control, leading to unbridled conflict, institutional disintegration and economic collapse.

The second scenario is called Fortress World.  It's an "authoritarian response to the threat of breakdown".  In the Fortress World the so-called "haves" fence-out the "have-nots".  The elites build a fortress in order to keep the impoverished majorities out, hoarding the resources for themselves while those outside the fortress suffer from hunger and environmental degradation.

Great Transitions

These are the scenarios that get really interesting.  This is where the hope lies. 

The first is called Eco-Communalism.  It's a scenario in which everything breaks down into smaller, localized communities.  In response to the social and environmental strains put on the planet by a growing global population and growing consumption trends, economics and politics become localized.  It is very optimistic and holds that these communities, rather than going back to the ways of pre-industrial societies, will forge human development forwards and practice face-to-face democracy, local technology and economic self-sufficiency.  (An example of the beginning of this could be seen as the Transition Towns Movement.)

Sounds pretty nice, eh?  Or at least way better than the previous scenarios.  But, wait; it gets better!

The second scenario is called the New Sustainability Paradigm.  It envisions a world in which "(t)he fabric of global society is woven with diverse communities".  Culture has shifted to the pursuit of meaningful lives and a sense of well-being.  Freedom, tolerance and decency reign!  Nothing is done that might jeopardize the health of eco-systems.  "A global culture of peace and mutual respect anchors social harmony."  The main difference between this world and the one we have right now is that our values shift from being based in pursuing material wealth to pursuing a quality of existence that can be reached through creativity,  sharing ideas, culture, human relationships, and a harmonious relationship with nature.

Right now, we have signs of all of these transitions happening.  So, we're at a bit of a tipping point.  We are constantly changing anyways, so it's better to have a direction, a vision and some calculated moves in mind.  Luckily, it's something we are all participating in.  Which scenario(s) are you acting out?

This is just a teaser to get your mind going. What kind of transition do you envision for the world to make?

For more details about the Global Scenario Group, here's the website and here's the published paper they wrote (it's very nice!).

And in case you haven't already read them, here's my post on quality of life and my post on economic growth.